I’m David Cervantes. I manage money for myself and a small number of families. Most of that work is long-term asset allocation: planning for retirement, education and the other commitments a family must meet.
This publication is the research behind the active part: the discretionary trades I make with a smaller slice of each portfolio, typically around 10%. Now in its fourth year, it follows the US business cycle, interest rates and central bank policy, and every position I take is on the record.
How I work
Every note starts with one question: what is everyone else anchored to that isn’t true anymore? I answer it in five moves: identify the regime, find the new marginal information, build the causal chain, set the conditions, and size the position.
The first three are measurement, and the Subscriber Dashboard now does that work automatically. The last two are judgment, and the track record is the P&L.
The record
I’d rather show you than tell you.
Calls made in writing and in real time: the 2023 soft landing, the Fed’s pivots in 2023 and 2024, and the closing of the 2025 recession window.
More recent calls in 2026 include getting ahead of the popping of the precious metals bubble, the sudden stop of the labor market, and the equity rotation that started in June and became more pronounced in the fall.
The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos included my inflation forecast alongside major bank economists in his PCE forecast table, and I’ve been quoted in The New York Times. More about me.
The Subscriber Dashboard
Paid subscribers get the framework running every day. The dashboard tracks what’s driving the 10-year, where policy sits against neutral, how broad the equity market is, the economic data and the cycle, and every position I hold. It works in your browser or as an app on your phone, with alerts you choose.
Free or paid
Free subscribers get:
Previews of my notes and the articles I make free.
The monthly Performance page.
Paid subscribers also get:
Every note in full: Signal & Noise and Market Commentary two to three times a month, notes on every inflation and jobs report, and a US growth update.
The Subscriber Dashboard, on the web and as a phone app.
The Discord, where trade alerts and daily discussion happen.
Alerts you choose: new notes, data releases and notes from me.
After you subscribe
The welcome email walks you through setup: the dashboard, the phone app, alerts and the Discord. It takes about five minutes. If anything doesn’t work, reply to it and I’ll sort it out.
Where to start reading
My two-year retrospective (September 2025): the framework, the record through year two, and links to a dozen free notes.
Performance: every month since August 2024 against the S&P 500, published in good months and bad.