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Free subscribers can preview some of the Dashboard content by reading some of the user guide excerpts below.
The Pinebrook Framework: A User Guide to the Dashboard
Updated October 2, 2026
The dashboard is the Pinebrook framework, running on autopilot every day. The regime read, the marginal information and the causal chains from Pinebrook’s published work, spanning over 300 notes, all measured and updated automatically.
The framework starts with one question: what is everyone else anchored to that isn’t true anymore?
It answers it in five moves:
Identify the regime.
Find the new marginal information.
Build the causal chain.
Set the conditions.
Size the bet.
The first three are measurement, and the dashboard now does that work automatically and transparently.
The last two stay judgment calls, but the conditions are tracked here, and the track record is the PNL.
Every number on the dashboard is derived: a change, a spread, a z-score, a percentile, a label. Each one exists because it feeds a signal or a label you can act on. Nothing is decoration, and nothing is a black box: each panel says how it is built and what it can’t tell you.
Page by page
Each page answers a few questions. Read the label first, then the panel that explains it.
Home. One tile per engine, each with its current label and a one-year chart. A scan of the five tiles is the 30-second version of the whole dashboard.
Rates Engine: 10-year Decomposition. Why did the 10-year move?
Driver: which piece did most of the 10Y’s move over 20 trading days: real rates (RRFNR), term premium, or inflation compensation. Confirmed over 5 days so one session can’t flip it.
What changed, and why: the same split for any window you pick.
How the curve moved: each of six spreads labeled bull or bear, steepening or flattening, or a twist. Four or more agreeing means a curve-wide move.
Fed path priced in: policy moves priced over the next 12 months, in basis points and quarter-point moves, and the change since the last SEP.
Rate volatility: how far yields have actually moved over the last month, labeled Calm, Normal, Elevated or Stressed against history since 2006.
Does holding duration pay? How far each yield can rise over a year before a financed position loses money.
The jaws, RRFNR trend, How stretched, Driver history: the decomposition over time, real yield against RRFNR (the gap is term premium), and how extreme each yield is against its own history.
Rates Engine: Market-implied r*. Is policy priced as tight or loose?
Restrictive or Accommodative: the market’s expected real policy path over five years against its read of neutral (r*, years five to ten).
Market vs the Fed’s neutral rate: when the market’s r* sits well above the Fed’s, the Fed’s long-run dots tend to drift up or long yields come down to meet them.
What the Fed’s projections say: whether the Fed’s own unemployment path implies a recession (a Sahm-rule trigger), and how far the dots sit from the Fed’s balanced-approach rule. The recession flag is the part with a track record.
Equities Engine. Three questions plus relative performance. Are sectors moving together (correlation regime)? Is leadership broad or narrow (equal-weight against cap-weight)? Are stocks paying enough over bonds (the implied equity risk premium)? Relative Performance shows 100-day returns and MTD, QTD and YTD.
Economics Engine. Where is the economy now, and where is it heading?
Scorecard: a weekly composite across long-leading, short-leading and coincident indicators, with a regime label and what changed this week.
Activity: the ISM composite (25% manufacturing, 75% services, 3-month averages), labeled Expansion, Inflationary boom or Contraction.
Labor, Consumer & Inflation, Energy & Housing: the labor market, inflation across windows, the oil shock test and the monthly housing pipeline.
Cycle & Credit: is housing dragging on GDP growth, is anything offsetting it, and is credit worried? Includes the Fed’s own 12-month recession probability.
Silver & Gold. How far each metal has run against its 200-day average and against the S&P, in standard deviations. The z-score is the gunpowder; the narrative break is the spark.
Ledger. Every position, timestamped: year-to-date return against the S&P, the equity curve, drawdown and open positions. The proof that the framework is real.