Welcome. I’m David Cervantes, and I run Pinebrook Capital Management, a boutique asset manager. I manage money for a small number of families through asset allocation, systematic trading strategies and discretionary positions.
This publication is the research behind that work. It follows the US business cycle, the path of interest rates and central bank policy, and each note ends with a view and, where there is one, a position.
Background
Before founding Pinebrook, I worked in fixed income sales at Morgan Stanley, covering central banks and local financial institutions. I set up swap and repo lines for an under-covered sovereign market and offshore dollar funding for local players, alongside FX intermediation, hedging and brokerage execution. Earlier I was in cross-asset sales at UBS and J.P. Morgan, covering investors in Asia, EMEA and Latin America.
I hold an MBA from the University of Wisconsin–Madison and did graduate work in international finance at the National University of Singapore. At UC Santa Barbara I studied economics and international relations, and wrote my senior thesis on currency pegs and devaluations at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. I speak Spanish and French.
You can reach me at david@pinebrookcap.com.
In the Press
The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos has included my inflation forecast alongside those of major bank economists in his PCE forecast table (September 2026 Core PCE).
Quoted in The New York Times: October 2023 and October 2024.
Podcast: a conversation on the US labor market with Guy Berger, former chief economist at LinkedIn.
Important Notice
Pinebrook provides research and analysis for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing published should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past discussions of market outcomes are provided as historical context only and do not guarantee future results.
