Don’t watch the stone hit the water; anticipate the ripples.
Stop Guessing. Start Profiting.
Most investors are drowning in noise. Pinebrook cuts straight to the signals that matter.
Economic growth and inflation are policy choices.
Financial markets are best understood as betting markets that handicap the evolution of economic growth and inflation, and the policy reaction function that guides market expectations.
At Pinebrook, the focus is on what really drives financial markets: policy choices that shape growth, inflation, and investor expectations.
Rather than chasing endless indicators or clinging to static models, Pinebrook takes a forward-looking approach to help readers understand the forces that are most likely to influence markets.
Day-to-day market movements are random. Markets trends, however, are not random - they’re driven by policy choices. By tracking those choices, we consistently stay ahead of the consensus and position for profitable outcomes.
What Sets Pinebrook Apart
Actionable and proven foresight: We’ve called the big turns that mattered - soft landing in 2023, the Fed’s pivots in ’23 and ’24, and the closing of the 2025 “recession window” - all before the crowd.
Clarity over complexity: Forget thousands of economic indicators and static models. We focus on what really drives growth and inflation.
Policy - focused analysis: We track the decisions and their contextual nuance that guide growth and inflation, rather than reacting to noise.
Proven results: Insights are tied directly to market outcomes and PNL, not theory or financial journalism. The receipts are in the trade blotter.
Independent perspective: We publish our views without the constraints of consensus thinking or legacy frameworks.
The content delivery goal is not glorified financial journalism, but rather analytical foresight that makes or saves money. We take a stand and make a call.
Your Unfair Advantage: What You Will Get as a Subscriber
The Signal & Noise Filter (2 - 3x/month): In-depth macro strategy analysis - where markets stand and where they may be headed.
Market Commentary (2 - 3x per month): Real-time insights into equities, bonds, and trading opportunities.
U.S. Economic Growth Update (quarterly): A forward looking lense on the expected economic evolution and the likely policy reaction function.
Sectoral Studies: Focused research on sectors showing meaningful change or potential opportunities based on upcoming macro developments.
High Frequency Data Notes: Fast, ad-hoc analysis on inflation and labor market prints.
Subscriber-Only Trading Blotter: Entries, exits, prices, and sizing - real trades, real accountability.
Stop Following the Market. Start Leading It.
Pinebrook delivers an independent macroeconomic analysis the helps you see pivotal shifts before they become obvious. We provide a clear framework to anticipate trends, sidestep costly herd mentality, and deploy your capital with the conviction of a leader.
Get After It™️ and subscribe today to access independent macroeconomic research designed to inform your perspective and decision-making.
MEDIA LINKS
Featured in the NY Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/business/economy/september-jobs-report.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/business/economy/trump-economy-markets-trade.html#
Selected Podcasts
With Guy Berger, former chief economist of LinkedIn
Guy Berger Joins Pinebrookcap for a discussion about the U.S. labor market.
Super duper interesting chat with Guy Berger on the current and potential future states of the U.S. labor market.
Stansberry Research Investor Conference, Featured Speaker, Las Vegas
https://players.brightcove.net/5298920694001/k7kYTMBz75_default/index.html?videoId=6340224316112
Paywall Free Content
Eleven embedded links in this 2-year Anniversary Retrospective
Anniversary Retrospective
Two years ago, I launched this Substack after years of posting content on X (formerly Twitter) and participating in podcasts.
TESTIMONIALS
https://x.com/stevehou0/status/1796641316702495193?s=46
https://x.com/bobeunlimited/status/1906293257241325610?s=46
https://x.com/wallyspop/status/1965776860643770690?s=46
https://x.com/maitian99/status/1969159462221975963?s=46
https://x.com/capitalpatel/status/1934789076864974977?s=46
Important Notice
Pinebrook provides research and analysis for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing published should be considered personalized investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past discussions of market outcomes are provided as historical context only and do not guarantee future results.
