My 2025 outlook written in December is looking for +20% or more. Broader point is don’t let tariff talk dictate the cyclical narrative and this is NOT 2019 (for all the right reasons).
Why was China able to raise tariffs in May 2019 then weaken the yuan in August? What would enable the US to raise/maintain tariffs and still weaken the dollar? Would disinflation and/or 10 year rate declines weaken the dollar?
Good stuff as always! thank you. I am wondering if you envision this more like a flat year or more like a grind up (2014, 2017 style) because of low vol regime. You mentioned that this is unlike 2019 which came after a down year. 2014 and 2017 came after nicely up years but when low vol was prevalent, just like the current regime. Or this could be completely flat with average vol switching to higher levels like 2015 or 2018.
My 2025 outlook written in December is looking for +20% or more. Broader point is don’t let tariff talk dictate the cyclical narrative and this is NOT 2019 (for all the right reasons).
Why was China able to raise tariffs in May 2019 then weaken the yuan in August? What would enable the US to raise/maintain tariffs and still weaken the dollar? Would disinflation and/or 10 year rate declines weaken the dollar?
Good stuff as always! thank you. I am wondering if you envision this more like a flat year or more like a grind up (2014, 2017 style) because of low vol regime. You mentioned that this is unlike 2019 which came after a down year. 2014 and 2017 came after nicely up years but when low vol was prevalent, just like the current regime. Or this could be completely flat with average vol switching to higher levels like 2015 or 2018.
He’s calling for +20% at year end. https://www.pinebrookcap.com/p/market-commentary-d63