Thank you for the note! You mention being short duration due to inflation risks. Any thought on long-duration tips, which are currently trading at near-record yields and seem like a great buy? Or are you concerned about risk premium growing due to growing debt-GDP ration? Also, I expect that at least a 10% universal import tariff is here to stay and will not be negotiated away simply because Trump loves tariffs. This extra revenue is effectively a fiscal tightening worth about 1% of GDP, which may but probably not be offset by the new tax law congress is working on. Why do you expect public deficits to get bigger (as a percentage of GDP)?
Awesome report David-- fantastic.
Thanks Dan. Also I owe you a response to your DM yesterday. Haven’t forgotten.
Thank you David. Very helpful.
I’m glad.
First
Hope you were on a walk!
Hi.
Interested on your take on the below:
US INSIGHT: House Budget + Trump Tariffs = Near Deficit-Neutral
{NSN SWK0X1DWX2PS <GO>}
Written by Anna so I attach a higher tariff (😆) to its findings.
Thank you for the note! You mention being short duration due to inflation risks. Any thought on long-duration tips, which are currently trading at near-record yields and seem like a great buy? Or are you concerned about risk premium growing due to growing debt-GDP ration? Also, I expect that at least a 10% universal import tariff is here to stay and will not be negotiated away simply because Trump loves tariffs. This extra revenue is effectively a fiscal tightening worth about 1% of GDP, which may but probably not be offset by the new tax law congress is working on. Why do you expect public deficits to get bigger (as a percentage of GDP)?
Are you using the QQQ or XLK ? I like GARP, also. 49% tech and great returns….