Market Commentary
The Calm Before…
There is a particular kind of danger that arrives not with thunder but with good news. The S&P 500 is up 19.48% from its March 30th low. Forward earnings have risen for 53 consecutive weeks, a streak that has no precedent in the post-2009 era. Net margins hit a record 15.5%. The VIX sits at a 15-handle. By the conventional measures of market health, the tape looks fine.
It is fine right now in the same way that the Mediterranean was calm in the straits between Scylla and Charybdis until Odysseus had to sail through them. The calm is real. The dangers flanking it are equally real.
The purpose of this note is to identify what investors need to know so that they come out the other side of the strait with their ship and PNL intact.