24 Comments
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Benjamin Lavine's avatar

Great article as always. What's not lazy is Dave's use of generative AI to check his writing as this article is surprisingly free of spelling and grammar errors.

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David Cervantes's avatar

There’s an idea. Use AI to spell check

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Valentin Aufrand's avatar

A splendid article, David.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Merci Valentin!

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Sol moin's avatar

Thanks for the detailed write up. Not sure i agree but can't fade you, costs too much money lol. Risk on.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Lol. Focus less on the number and more on understanding the linkages between the economy and the market outcomes.

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Neo Patel's avatar

Re-reading this note today. Brilliant! I can't believe I am only paying $39/month for this.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Tnx but pls don’t remind me of this fact 😂

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Brendan Rafalski's avatar

Great read. Any views on sectors going forward?

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David Cervantes's avatar

I’ll cover that at the start of the year.

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Andy's avatar

If I read this right…blow off top. Also the entire time I read it I had the normal distribution meme in my head

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David Cervantes's avatar

Less of a blowup top call as more don’t be a lazy thinker and go with 10% as a default.

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麦田 Rye's avatar

To be frank, this is a masterpiece. For me, it is not just an end-of-year summary and a consolidation, but it has also broadened my horizons. To be very sincere, this is a masterpiece... However, I think this article may not have taken into account the political risks to the economy. Trump and Musk are very likely to cause significant damage to the U.S. economy in 2025.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Political risks are a thing but also unknowable outcomes. Mostly guesses. So I try to ignore.

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麦田 Rye's avatar

Got it. Thank you for the reply.

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Paul Douds's avatar

Hi David, does AI know what BTFD means? Thanks for the information. Very relevant.

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David Cervantes's avatar

I’m sure AI knows everything. 😂

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Ringo's avatar

This is excellent DC!!

Clear, brief and brilliant. Well done.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Thank you Ringo. 🙏

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Max martynyuk's avatar

Risk on for 2025 but are we still looking at a mix of small caps vs SPX? Position for small cap out performance?

Also, thank you.

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David Cervantes's avatar

Small caps are a tactical trade not a strategic position.

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Matt D's avatar

Does your market upside analysis change if we are in year 5 of the bull market? I think of this as all one risk on period besides a slight pause in 2022 from an overextended period in 2021.

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David Cervantes's avatar

No. Year number is irrelevant. That was my point.

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JC's avatar

Splendid article, thank you David.

Any opinion on tariffs and immigration and how this can affect markets once Trump takes office?

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