David is your no cuts this year view high enough conviction to take a short ZQ position? The curve, at close Friday, was pricing 58 bps of cuts for the Dec contract.
Haha, thanks, David, for the calm analysis. God bless—your article wasn’t about Iran, and you didn’t pretend to be a geopolitical expert. That’s exactly why we subscribe. Hahahaha…
I have two questions:
On rate cuts: should we factor in politics? My sense is that if there are no cuts this year, Trump is going to go crazy?!
What do you think about shorting HYG or KKR? I’m already heavily short KKR, and I’ve recently been thinking about starting a short position in HYG…
Lastly, if you’re going to travel, in the future you should still come to China—such a “safe” country. Over here, everything is under control. It’s honestly so f***ing “safe” right now. Haha.
David, what proxies are you using for HY index and triple C? I basically do the same for Bloomberg US HY index and its Caa sub-index and my ‚trash spread’ seems to look way calmer. Thank you!
David is your no cuts this year view high enough conviction to take a short ZQ position? The curve, at close Friday, was pricing 58 bps of cuts for the Dec contract.
Yes.
Haha, thanks, David, for the calm analysis. God bless—your article wasn’t about Iran, and you didn’t pretend to be a geopolitical expert. That’s exactly why we subscribe. Hahahaha…
I have two questions:
On rate cuts: should we factor in politics? My sense is that if there are no cuts this year, Trump is going to go crazy?!
What do you think about shorting HYG or KKR? I’m already heavily short KKR, and I’ve recently been thinking about starting a short position in HYG…
Lastly, if you’re going to travel, in the future you should still come to China—such a “safe” country. Over here, everything is under control. It’s honestly so f***ing “safe” right now. Haha.
As for HYG you do that if the cycle is slowing. I don’t think it is. I think we have risk aversion.
Your explanation of the distinction between the two is very convincing. Many thanks!
I try to keep politics out of my analysis.
buy equities to make up for inflation “ does that theory play a role in the thesis.
No.
David, what proxies are you using for HY index and triple C? I basically do the same for Bloomberg US HY index and its Caa sub-index and my ‚trash spread’ seems to look way calmer. Thank you!
I can send you the FRED numonic if you wish.
that would be very much appreciated. Also, I’m happy to share my graphs.
Drop these into FRED
BAMLC0A0CM
BAMLC0A4CBBB
BAMLH0A0HYM2
BAMLH0A3HYC
yes send your graphs over DM or email or BBG.