Pinebrookcap's Substack

Pinebrookcap's Substack

Share this post

Pinebrookcap's Substack
Pinebrookcap's Substack
Weekly Signal & Noise Filter
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

Weekly Signal & Noise Filter

This ain't your momma's macro cycle

David Cervantes's avatar
David Cervantes
Nov 13, 2023
∙ Paid
14

Share this post

Pinebrookcap's Substack
Pinebrookcap's Substack
Weekly Signal & Noise Filter
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
10
Share

The holy grail of macro investing revolves around understanding the economic growth cycle and the subsequent policy reaction function to economic developments.

On November 1st, an affirmative policy decision was made by the U.S. Treasury Department to not torch the bond market with supply.

The above set off a repricing of the bond market and downstream risk assets which continued through last week, as the worst-case scenarios were taken off the table.

No doubt the Treasury decision was influenced by broader macro forces which redirected Treasury’s focus to economic slowing, restrictive financial conditions, and a cooling labor market.

The macro policy writing was on the wall and Treasury got the memo.

In order to front run the next policy response, we must explore the evolution of the macro cycle.  Thus, the next data point to consider is the CPI report on Tuesday, November 14th.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 David Cervantes
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More