Weekly Signal & Noise Filter

BTFD or STFR?

The above is the relevant question for investors and traders.  No other comes come close in terms of PNL impact.

The appropriate approach to the problem set revolves around addressing the following:

• Inflation trajectory and the Fed’s reaction function to the inflation/growth matrix.

• Company earnings.

• Bond levels and risk premiums.

Inflation

The CPI data was mostly offset by the PPI data.  Pinebrook’s pre-core CPI projection of .16% MoM was revised up to .3%MoM.

The post PPI projection is now .25%MoM, below the Street consensus number of .27%MoM.

Admittedly, none of this is controversial or value added at this point as confidence intervals are wide and prints between .2% and .3% would not be a game changing surprise.

What is value added is front running the Fed’s reaction function.  Pinebrook is of the