Weekly Signal & Noise Filter

The Information Surface Matches Pinebrook’s Projections – What is Next?

• The growth slowdown is now a consensus reality.

• A return to the disinflationary trend, after a hotter than expected Q1 inflation season, is no longer a four-letter word.

• A decline in yields of the 10-year note to our near targets (4.3% and 4.15%) has transpired within 1-basis point and change (intraday).

• A cut in the Fed funds policy rate in September is now a done deal.

We start our consideration of what is next by offering up Pinebrook’s core PCE projection for June (July release).