Weekly Signal & Noise Filter

New Marginal Information

·      Economics:  The inflation story is on life support, if not already dead. 

·      Fixed income:  Real rates are now above the real risk-free neutral rate, which makes them potentially restrictive.

·      Equities:  12-month forward earnings expectations were slightly up.  That is the noise.  The signal is in the clarity of the earnings forecasts for Q3.