U.S. Market Commentary
The Song Remains the Same
The natural corollary to the belief that the U.S. economy would be in a recession starting in late 2022 or early 2023 is a downturn to the U.S. business cycle, and with it, a fall in the value of risk assets.
An average, a recession results in a decline of 15% S&P500 earnings and a 30% - 50% decline in the value of the index.
The fetishizing of a recession in this cycle has resulted in a persistent belief that the business cycle is in its late stages and a stock market crash is around the corner.