U.S. Economic Growth Update
Growth Bull Intact
The U.S. economy ended 2024 stronger than expected by these pages. Sure enough, there was a mild, mid-quarter growth pullback from 3% to 2.6% on October 30th, but it was shallower than expected and the bounce was equally stronger. Having round-tripped the Trump bump, the current expectation sits at 2.7%.
This is water under the bridge at this point as markets are getting after discounting H2 2025, noisily ping-ponging around with evolutions in the data. The most important near data point is today’s jobs day report, which not only showed signs of labor market stabilization, but of robust stabilization.
