Market Commentary
31
The month of November was stuffed with narratives that these pages chose to ignore, choosing instead to focus on the bigger picture of how calendar 2026 could shape up.
With one month left in 2025, the commentariat is wondering if an all-time-high (ATH) is still possible this year, particularly one that breaks the big round 7,000 SPX barrier.
We of course do not know that with certainty. Black swans are a thing, especially with the current mercurial American President in office. Although suffice it to say, this is also a president with a fetichized fixation on the stock market and lower interest rates.
Growing earning expectations, growing profit margins, and a relatively stable macro environment favor the seasonal backdrop below.
As of this writing, the most recent ATH was hit on October 28th of this year. Below is a table that plots the number of times the market has peaked for the year in each month for the past 45 years.
Observations: