Signal & Noise Filter
The Chaos Continues
Chaos is a feature, not a bug, of the current incoherent policy mix. We can scream at the moon, or keep our heads straight and get after it, front run it and try to make some cash. The latter is the focus of these pages.
Friday’s GDP report is the noise.
The government shutdown subtracted 1.15% points from GDP growth.
Absent this, growth would have been 2.5% instead.
This will artificially add 1% to growth in Q1 2026.
Core GDP, aka real final sales to domestic purchasers, came in at 2.4% and indicates the consumer is in good shape – though not booming.
The inflation data that was received for December is equally stale, given that we already have January CPI in hand.