Pre NFP-Commentary

The QRA is something that I had not written about, mainly because as it was so talked about, there was no marginal information to opine on. 

Whatever the numbers, they were likely priced in – outside of some crazy outliers.  A review of the tape brings an observer to the same conclusion. 

• Bond yields moved little after the 8:30am release, but really cratered going into the weak ISM, signaling the growth slowdown was going from an academic exercise to an expected one.

• Things really got moving with the release of the Atlanta Fed now-cast that took Q4 GDP down to 1.2% from 2.3% the prior week.

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was basically inconsequential.

After reviewing the presser transcript, here are my conclusions:

• The Fed is cool with things as they are.

• Powell said wage inflation was not a thing, thus far.

• Economy is solid, and there is no rush to cut rates.

Today’s non-farm productivity data confirms as much:  real wages can keep growing, along with economic output, without triggering a wage-inflation spiral.

Non-Farm Payrolls, Santa, Money & Strategy

Hopefully some folks were positioned, or got positioned, to take advantage of some the developments above. 

Remember, PNL > shiny toy models.

The question now is, did Santa get here early?  Is the SPX on to new annual or even all-time highs?