November NFP Preview

Not Again.....

This note is not a forecast on the number itself.  That parlor game is anyone’s best guess, and no one has a consistent edge in forecasting the number.

With that out of the way, lets refresh our Sahm Rule trigger.  The Sahm Rule indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U3 unemployment rate rises by .5% or more relative to its low during the previous 12-months.

The SR level is currently .333.

Based on the data history, here is how a U3 (currently at 3.9%) in the November release will impact the number.