May 2025 CPI Preview

Likely the Last Month of Inflation Calm

Pinebrook’s expectation for core CPI tomorrow is in-line with the consensus of .27% MoM. There is no real utility in projecting a number within a few hundredths of a point, as this is simply random number generator noise that is priced in for past activity.

· Expect to see less used car inflation.

· More core-goods inflation.

· Less core services inflation.

The hoped-for value add of this inflation commentary is to explore nuances for a forward-looking signal related to evolutions in the growth and inflation matrix and the subsequent policy response.