Pinebrookcap's Substack

Pinebrookcap's Substack

Market Commentary

Party Like its January 1980

David Cervantes's avatar
David Cervantes
Oct 20, 2025
∙ Paid
14
2
3
Share

On Thursday, October 16, 2025, GLD, the gold ETF, closed within a hair of being overbought by 2-standard deviations relative to the S&P500 on a one-calendar year lookback window.

  • The closing level was 47.22% versus a 2-sigma value of 48.19%.

  • Gold has not been this overbought relative to the S&P500 since September of 2011.

  • Currently 46.02%

Gold spot prices rose 30.10% from $3348.43/oz. on August 20, 2025, the day before Jackson Hole, to $4356.28/oz. on October 16, 2025.

Anchoring to the post - Jackson Hole parabolic move misses the broader momentum behind the current move.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 David Cervantes
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture