June Inflation Report
CPI, PPI, and the Core PCE Read-Through
Executive Summary
June CPI (July 14) delivered the first real Core CPI miss in months. Most of it doesn’t matter for PCE.
June PPI (July 15) delivered the part that does matter: airfares and portfolio management came in soft, and that’s the real impact on the core PCE call below.
A July hike is off the table, but these pages have front run that.
The house call is for a December hike, but September/October are still alive and for now genuinely data-dependent rather than a foregone conclusion.