While it may appear that labor market got shot in the head over the summer, the American consumer has a different take on the matter.
Nominal August retail sales rose 0.6%.
July was revised 0.1% higher, from 0.5% to 0.6%.
Taking into account consumer inflation in August, real retail sales rose 0.2% for the month, after a 0.4% increase in July.
This means that real retail sales are now at their highest since January 2023.
Most importantly, as consumption leads employment, real retail sales suggests that YoY jobs growth will not roll over before year end. Low NFP prints aside, U3 will likely not give off signs of recessionary instability before year end, as the summer consumption impulse will manifest itself in this fall’s labor data.
Last week’s discussion of measurement issues in a labor market that is re-balancing does manage future expectations for lower NFP prints, but it also highlights risks for the FOMC.
A downshift in hiring as the labor market adjusts to this stage of the policy cycle is one thing.
Negative NFP prints going forward are another.
This is the third rail of the policy set up.